ClimateChange: ElNino record level 2015…

Im Oktober 2015 wurde ein langjährigen Hitzrekord weltweit erreicht. Das steht im Zusammenhang mit dem beginnenden El-Nino Ereignis, das seinen Höhehpunkt Ende 2015/ Anfang 2015 erreichen wird. Eine Zusammenfassung von Beiträgen auf arstechnica.com und climate.gov (US-Behörde) zeigt bereits jetzt den dramatischen Verlauf. Aufgrund verschiedener Bewertungsmethoden wird El-Nino 2015 als langjähriger Höhepunkt oder kurz darunter eingestuft. Im Folgenden wird das worst-case-Szenario dargestellt.

Zwei Grafiken zeigen den Stand vom Oktober 2015:
Grafik 1: Statistische Zusammenfassung aller Kriterien in zwei Linien als Vergleich 1997/98 und 2015
Grafik 2: Global beobachtete Wetter-Anomalien im Oktober dargestellt als Weltkarte.
Die Links führen zu den jeweiligen Source-Web-Artikeln.

webThere are different ways of measuring the strength of El Niño, the periodic warming of equatorial sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Perhaps the simplest, most widely accepted metric is to look at temperatures between 90 degrees west and 160 degrees east longitude, and 5 degrees north and 5 degrees south of the equator, known as the Niño 3.4 region.

The latest analysis from NOAA shows this area of the Pacific had a weekly average temperature 3.0 degrees Celsius above normal, which is a record high. This weekly mark is higher than the 2.8 degrees Celsius anomaly recorded during the week of November 26, 1997, the last really strong El Niño. The NOAA scientists predict El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to neutral conditions during the late spring or early summer 2016.

GRAFIK 1arstechnica-elnino2015-nov-preview

open/close GRAFIK 1

US-Government:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a US-federal agency focused on the condition of the oceans and the atmosphere.
webThe combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2015 was the highest for October in the 136-year period of record, at 0.98°C (1.76°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). This marked the sixth consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken and was also the greatest departure from average for any month in the 1630 months of recordkeeping, surpassing the previous record high departure set just last month by 0.13°F (0.07°C). The October temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade.

Separately, the October average temperature across global land surfaces was 1.33°C (2.39°F) above the 20th century average, the highest for October on record. This surpasses the previous record set in October 2011 by 0.17°C (0.31°F). This margin is larger than the uncertainty associated with the dataset. Large regions of Earth’s land surfaces were much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Record warmth was observed across the entire southern half of Australia, part of southern and southeastern Asia, much of central and southern Africa, most of Central America and northern South America, and parts of western North America. Regionally, Oceania and the African continent were both record warm. Argentina, part of northeastern Canada, scattered regions of western and central Russia, and central Japan were cooler or much cooler than average.

click picture:  GRAFIK 2:
NOAAA warmest October ever 2015/10:arrows-outside-1-512NOAAA warmest October ever 2015/10


WMO has produced an animation to explain this year’s El Niño event.

WMO released its Update on the eve of an international El Niño Conference to increase scientific understanding of this event and help boost resilience to anticipated global socio-economic shocks.